Should I buy, sell or hodl?

| roger nunn

I’ve been trying to get my head around crypto for quite a while. I am convinced by the security if the blockchain itself as otherwise someone would have cracked it by now.

I am specifically writing about Bitcoin as it leads and the others follow. If the Bitcoin encryption had been broken the whole crypto market would have collapsed by now. There have been various suggestions that a quantum computer will break the encryption so it always a possible outcome.

In the meantime I am watching the oscillation of Bitcoin’s value (in US$) and to decide what to do.

Currently I’m hodling but it’s not an actual decision, it’s more like a lack of decision.

I am sure that an active decision is the right thing to do, that is my job for today.

Does Bitcoin provide any stability?

| roger nunn

There have been many new crypto currencies since the gradual acceptance of bitcoin started.

Much of the criticism of bitcoin is linked to its speed of operation, its wild fluctuations and its massive use of energy.

There are many (very many) pretenders to the Bitcoin throne, literally thousands of crypto tokens, currencies, etc.

As far as I can see, Bitcoin is the only crypto asset that doesn’t have any inflation. All the others are designed so that the administrators can get rich on the backs of hopeful investors.

So, while all the criticisms above can reasonably be levelled at Bitcoin, it is the only one that has survived multiple government attacks.

Of course Bitcoin is volatile and people lose money by FOMOing and then selling on the dips, but that will settle down one day.

keep bitcoin under your mattress!

| roger nunn

Trusting a bank to look after your money has always been a difficult proposition. People like the idea that their money is kept safe and are always looking for a way to do it. Many people put money in the “safety” of the bank and found later that it had disappeared. This is why Banks are supposed to keep enough liquidity to reassure the depositors that their money is safe.

Some people have hidden the money at home, hidden so that thieves cannot find it, often in or under the mattress. This idea is good for inspiring treasure hunters looking for gold coins as people have also died without revealing where the money was hidden.

Recent crypto difficulties have mirrored those of the banks before regulation became standard. Celcius and FTL are examples of how keeping your money on a trading site can result in losing value. So not only does your crypto drop in value, the organisation holding it can lose it all for you.

Crypto writers have repeatedly said that you should store your crypto in a hardware wallet and keep it at home. If you have done this, then no-one can steal it from you.

Maybe you should just put your hardware wallet under your bed.

Crypto winter?

| roger nunn

There are endless articles about the end of crypto and the total demise of Bitcoin.

The crypto market has always been subject to huge fluctuations compared to other markets, such as stocks. When the crypto market is rising the proponents all talk about its power and show off how much money they are making.

Crypto is based on an interesting development in cryptography that allows for a permanent record of events, the blockchain. This will continue to work and to be useful until such time as it is surpassed by another technology.

In the last couple of years we have had productivity and the worldwide markets severely affected by a pandemic and a European war. It’s not surprising that the crypto world has taken a hammering.

Don’t forget that Bitcoin is now around $20K and in 2018 it dropped to under 4K.

As to what happens next… People all want free money from the expected increase in value of crypto and are waiting for signs of a return to higher levels. If it happens it will be at someone’s cost. Holding crypto is a zero sum game until it is actually used for something that helps transactions.

So maybe we should start using crypto rather than speculating and hoping for free money.

Bitcoin fluctuations

| roger nunn

Bitcoin was the first widely known crypto currency. It has fluctuated a lot but overall has had an upward trajectory. It’s often quoted that had you bought a few thousand dollars worth 10 years ago you would now be rich. That idea is pointless as it’s always easy to be right in hindsight.

There are nearly 20,000,000 bitcoin so far, many of which are in the hands of a relatively few, the “whales”. This means that they can affect the price by buying and selling, collecting huge profits from those who buy in “fomoing” and then panic sell when the price dips.

I talk about only Bitcoin because the rest of the crypto market generally follows it up and down, even though other coins often make bigger gains (and losses) along the way.

I feel that the increasing level of knowledge and interest in the crypto market means the it is gradually maturing. It may be that the volatility is diminishing, thereby bringing bitcoin closer to its long term potential.

My thought is that it’s worth having some bitcoin even if you don’t believe in its future as then you don’t need hindsight.

Why write about Crypto

| roger nunn

I have been asked why I write about my own crypto adventures and why I don’t make videos, collect followers, and try to earn money.

I write down my thoughts as it helps me to clarify what I think about it. When I write, the action of having to put thoughts down empties my mind and stops me from thinking about it all the time.

Writing also helps me to see the development of crypto, to join in buying and selling, and not to get upset whenever t I don’t make any money.

It’s a new and rapidly developing industry, one that I am delighted to follow along with and to profit from sometimes.

If you find that my thoughts are helpful, then I am happy.

What is a stablecoin?

| roger nunn

The name Stable coin suggests that it could be a special coin used to pay for looking after your horse. It is not that.

I started buying and selling crypto in 2017. At the time I had heard of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I was then fascinated to discover that there were a multitude of other coins, each of which had its own use.

I bought small amounts of several different coins and came across Tether (USDT). As the name suggests, its value was pegged to the US $. I could easily buy and sell US $ and couldn’t see the point of having a cryptocurrency that was always worth 1$.

When trading between crypto currencies, however, I soon realised that exchanges always provide trading pairs that include stable coins.

The added complication comes when you find that there a multitude of different stable coins, each of which are issued by different people and usually for a specific platform. The value of each stablecoin is kept at or around 1 US$ by depositing fiat cash (or equivalent) with financial institutions. Further complications are brought in through the creation of DEFI stable coins that are backed up by crypto currencies rather than fiat.

It is getting ever more complicated, especially when you realise that you can trade stablecoins against each other, taking advantage of small variations in their value.

Briefly, any coin in the list that remains at around US$ 1 over time is probably a stablecoin, useful for trading or transferring value around the world.

FUD is a tool to get your money.

| roger nunn

Fear Uncertainty and Doubt, three words hidden in the often used acronym, FUD.

FUD occurs when an article is written suggesting a problem of some kind exists for a token, coin, exchange or a new crypto development. There are many writers looking for news, some of whom will quote the story without checking its truth or validity.

Of course, once more and more people write about it, the FUD spreads very quickly and can cause a large price correction for the crypto involved, which goes on until the original FUD becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This means that the market prices can be manipulated by spreading a bit of FUD, with the perpetrators being able to buy assets at a reduced price.

The use of FUD together with articles that induce copious FOMO mean that high worth traders can make considerable profits at the cost to those who make trades based on emotions.

So, don’t buy at the top or sell at the bottom.

Sell as you make profit and only buy when your reading suggests that the token or coin is likely to rise.

Easy to say!

Choosing an alt coin

| roger nunn

I am happy to see that bitcoin is once again above 60000 US $. It means that hodling has proved to be a good strategy.

Now I’m looking for something that could give me a 100X return. I know that it’s risky but I accept the possibility of loss.

So how do I choose?

There are thousands of alt coins. I search for those with a Market Cap of at least 1 Billion and a token value of around 1 cent. I then look at the exchanges used and the daily turnover, selecting only those that are actively being traded on reputable exchanges.

Once I have a list of possibles, about 4 or 5, I then read about the uses of each one. At this point it becomes a bit subjective and I choose one that I like.

I then buy a bit and put it into a wallet.

Next I ignore it and wait and see.

I sometimes gain but have never had 100 X increase in value. I have also lost but I’m more likely to gain in the wake of an increase in the price of bitcoin.

That’s it!